[SMM Analysis] Hydrogen Energy Breakthrough: How Can Central State-Owned Enterprises Lead the Way to Resolve the Dilemma of Involution?

I. Dynamics of Hydrogen Enterprises in the Past Month: Overseas Expansion as the Core Theme

Over the past month, the overseas expansion of Chinese hydrogen enterprises has become a key signal for the industry's breakthrough, contrasting sharply with the "differentiation and pressure" in the domestic market:

Major projects were signed intensively:

On September 8, United Energy Group signed a framework agreement with Mauritania for a million-metric-ton-scale green ammonia project, planning to establish large-scale green ammonia production facilities in the northern and central regions of the country; on September 14, it also signed a memorandum of understanding with Jordan for a green hydrogen and green ammonia project, initiating preliminary studies on producing green hydrogen and green ammonia using wind and solar power generation.

China National Chemical Engineering SEDIN Company concurrently signed an EPC project in Indonesia for 200,000 mt/year of green methanol and 140,000 mt/year of DME (dimethyl ether).

Accelerated export of equipment and technology:

Peric Hydrogen secured orders this month for containerized hydrogen production equipment from countries including Ethiopia, Poland, and Spain.

CIMC Hydrogen Energy exported 200 Nm³/h alkaline water electrolysis hydrogen production equipment to India, demonstrating the international competitiveness of Chinese hydrogen equipment.

II. Evolution Path from "Involution Deadlock" to "Overseas Opportunities"

The domestic hydrogen industry was once trapped in an "involution" dilemma: driven by policies, enterprises crowded into the sector, but demand-side maturity lagged—fuel cell vehicle sales remained limited, and the cultivation of hydrogen application scenarios progressed slowly; the supply side faced overcapacity: fierce competition in areas such as electrolyzers and fuel cell systems led to frequent price wars and profitability challenges. Over the past year, enterprises have accelerated their breakthrough overseas, with core pathways including:

1. Anchoring the "demand dividend" of global energy transition

The International Energy Agency (IEA)'s "Global Hydrogen Review 2025" indicated that global hydrogen investment in 2025 increased by 30% YoY. Meanwhile, policies such as Mauritania's "Green Hydrogen Act" and Jordan's special green hydrogen policies provided policy certainty for Chinese enterprises. Chinese companies targeted the comparative advantages of various countries: Mauritania's "excellent wind and solar resources," Jordan's "well-developed ports and ammonia storage and transportation facilities," and Indonesia's "abundant biomass resources (such as the ability to grow Arundo donax in tailings pond areas)," achieving a precise match between "resource country needs and Chinese technology."

2. "Mature export" of technology and industry chain

Domestic hydrogen equipment and technology have progressed from "catching up" to "running alongside" and even "leading": alkaline electrolyzers account for over 70% of global capacity, while PEM electrolyzers and green ammonia/green methanol synthesis technologies are also maturing.

3. Model upgrade from "selling equipment" to "integrated solutions"

Early overseas business mostly involved "single equipment exports," but has now evolved into full-chain services encompassing "resource development + equipment supply + engineering construction + operation services."

III. The Underlying Logic of Large Central State-Owned Enterprises Leading Overseas Projects

Central state-owned enterprises such as United Energy, China National Chemical Engineering, and China Energy Engineering have become the core leaders of overseas hydrogen energy projects, which stems from the concentrated embodiment of the following multiple advantages:

1. Hard Power Support of Technology and Capital

Hydrogen energy projects require large investments and long cycles. Central state-owned enterprises possess stronger fundraising capabilities and technology integration abilities.

2. Credibility and Policy Alignment Advantages in International Cooperation

As "national business cards," central state-owned enterprises are more likely to gain trust in cooperation with overseas governments and promote the inclusion of projects in local national strategies. For example, Mauritania's Green Hydrogen Act provides legal protection for United Energy's project, and Jordan's cabinet meeting specifically approved the memorandum for United Energy's project, both reflecting the advantages of central state-owned enterprises in international policy coordination.

3. Industry Chain Integration and Risk Resilience

The hydrogen energy industry chain involves multiple segments such as "wind and solar power generation—hydrogen production via water electrolysis—hydrogen storage and transportation—hydrogen application." Central state-owned enterprises can integrate domestic upstream and downstream resources to achieve "one-stop" delivery. At the same time, they are better able to withstand the political and economic risks of overseas projects, ensuring long-term and stable project advancement.

Therefore, the shift of China's hydrogen energy enterprises from domestic involution to breaking new ground overseas is the result of the combined effects of technological maturity, market pressures, and the global energy transition trend. Meanwhile, the leadership of large central state-owned enterprises in overseas projects represents the concentrated embodiment of multiple advantages in technology, capital, policy, and strategic layout, opening up "new space" for the global development of China's hydrogen energy industry.

Data sources: SMM, Hydrogen Energy Alliance, International Energy Agency